The Fall of Kabul
The Bloody Epilogue to the Global War on Terror
Twenty years of war, what was it good for? While the invasion of Afghanistan may have been prompted by America’s righteous national anger in 2001, the justification for US troop’s sustained presence there has eroded to the point of abandonment of the cause. With this conflict finally coming to a close, it is the arrival of a bitter moment in our national history. Since it dragged on so long, many people are left wondering what the point of all of it was, especially since the enemy has quickly dismantled any semblance of progress the armed forces made in that country. It is a multi-faceted situation that has yet to play out fully, but the point of this essay is to elucidate what is taking place, the geopolitical implications, and the practical ramifications, as well as to speculate as to what may come in the wake of this horrid situation.
With the Taliban emboldened by their steady progress in retaking the provincial capitals of Afghanistan, the departure of US & international personnel has become severe. As of right now, an estimated 20,000 insurgents have descended on the capital city of Kabul, steadily closing in on the city center. About 6,000 US troops have been mobilized to assist with the evacuation, and the sudden elevation in urgency has officials scrambling to keep track of this volatile situation. With the enemy closing in, the coalition forces and the citizens under their protection are in a race against time to leave the country. As dire as the situation seems, the US military is confident that their people will be evacuated without any serious problems. According to US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, there was a contingency plan in place in the event that the Afghan Army fell as quickly as it did, and that any aggression the Taliban commit against allied troops or personnel will be met with a strong and swift response. Currently, the airport has been secured by the US reinforcements, with no reports of direct insurgent attacks on US troops despite several incidences of citizens storming the grounds. While the situation is tense, the evacuation process is likely to succeed, as the air force maintains air superiority in the region and the influx of combat troops to provide security will keep things under control for the people under US protection. The people of Afghanistan, however, will not be so lucky. While there are reports that the Taliban has declared it’s intent to take the city with as little bloodshed as possible, what may come in the following weeks and months can’t be good for anyone who was not directly allied with them.
Since the United States officially began the draw-down of troops in the region, the Taliban has taken control of the country more rapidly than US intelligence agencies anticipated. This is especially difficult to accept as the US has been training over 300,000 locals for the last two decades. They were supposed to take up the defense of their supposed nation, so why did the Afghan army disband as quickly as they did? While the true answer is probably too complicated to elaborate on in this essay, the abridged answer that there is simply such a vast difference in culture that the westerners recruiting them did not consider, as well as some serious operational deficiencies that led to the total capitulation of the Afghan army. The main difference is in the motivations of the people, specifically when it comes to religion. The Taliban is a declared caliphate, meaning that their goal is to spread an extreme version of Islam. Their religious fervor, for better or for worse, is a part of Afghan culture. Whereas America’s nationalistic ideology probably meant very little to people who grew up in villages and had never seen the benefits of a federal government. Simply put, you cant fight for a nation that you don’t believe in.
While many of the people who joined the Afghan army may have genuinely wanted to help, many others had connections to, or sympathies for the Taliban (family members, beliefs, etc.). Others probably joined simply for the guaranteed meals and steady paycheck. So when the Taliban came charging into the area upon swiftly defeating whatever resistance was mustered against them, what was an individual supposed to do? Should they have laid down their lives for a foreign and seemingly abstract concept? Or would it make more sense to simply change into an insurgent friendly outfit and continue to live? The second option makes far more sense now that the situation has devolved so much, especially given the poor logistics and support network of the Afghan army. Most of the smart people have already packed up with their families and headed for the Pakistan border to take their chances as refugees. The others have no choice but to burn/bury any evidence that they assisted the US occupation and swear allegiance to the incoming regime, or face brutal consequences.
What happens in the coming days and weeks will shape the country for the following decades. While the Taliban have claimed that their intent is to reinstate a functional, service based government for the people, there is no guarantee that they will honor their espoused claims. As the US & coalition forces pull out, China and Russia have placed troops in Tajikistan, poised to obstruct any Taliban activity to the northeast. The countries are already in negotiations with Taliban leaders to provide goods and build infrastructure in exchange for access to resources such as rare earth metal deposits. Their interest in resources aside, they are also trying to keep any of the chaos from spilling outside of the region, though their intent is clearly self-interested and not for the sake of counter-terrorism around the globe. The western members of the UN security council (UK, US, and France) have stated that unless the Taliban respect the basic human rights of all the people in Afghanistan, the new regime will not be recognized diplomatically. But due to the potential trade deals with China and Russia, this could legitimize a Taliban regime on the world stage regardless, despite the western world’s refusal to acknowledge a Taliban controlled Afghanistan’s nationhood.
That may be the case in the long term geopolitically, but practically speaking, the immediate consequences inflicted within the country will be atrocious. While the Taliban insurgents are motivated by the same cause, there are factions of this insurgent group with competing motives, led by warlords who currently swear allegiance to the incoming regime. Should the situation deteriorate further in the aftermath of this hostile takeover, this situation will devolve into a bloody civil war. Regardless of how that plays out, the people who will be hurt the most right away will be the bystanders to this conflict i.e. the civilians who were just trying to make a living and get by. More certainly, it will be the women across the country will suffer the worst fate. Under Sharia Law they will once again be treated like second class citizens, losing their right to autonomy, education, and any amount other civil liberties they may have gained over the past two decades. Despite the Taliban’s supposed peaceful intentions to govern the country, the human rights violations that are about to take place will be a blight on humanity. In America, many top officials are concerned that Afghanistan will once again become a breeding ground for terrorists. Without the constant threat of combat, terrorist cells are free to move about the region and increase their means of income and recruitment. This means that the return of Al Qaeda will become a distinct possibility.
Many journalists & pundits on news outlets as well as casual observers on the internet are comparing the US armed forces pulling out of Afghanistan to the fall of Saigon during the Vietnam war. While that is a seemingly apt comparison, there are some important distinctions to be made. On the surface this is history repeating itself, or at least rhyming, in that the US military, which has persisted in the region for far too long, is finally leaving. However, the similarity begins and ends with that statement and the imagery of the helicopter evacuating personnel off of the roof of the US embassy.
While Saigon was being mercilessly pounded with artillery, that helicopter saved the last remaining personnel making for a dramatic moment in history; whereas the US departure from Kabul is going relatively smoothly, even accounting for the incidents occurring at the airport and the chaos happening in Kabul. This is a coordinated evacuation, not a desperate escape.
The draw-down in Vietnam came at the end of a conflict where almost 60,000 Americans combined with over 2 million civilians lost their lives, while the US armed forces’ departure from Afghanistan seems somewhat tame by comparison, having an order of magnitude fewer casualties (about 4,000 coalition casualties with about 100,000 civilians in total). Vietnam was a full blown war for the entire duration, whereas Afghanistan was mostly an occupation with hot spots of conflict. Though that is not to downplay the sacrifices made by US personnel, the suffering of the local populace, or the significance of this moment in history.
In America, this should be a moment of somber reflection for not only those in charge of the military, but for all of us. Most of the American public casually watched this war drag on, treating like an afterthought since none of it directly affected us. While the majority of the population generally approves of a withdrawal of forces from the Middle East, and has for a long time, no president has actually executed the task until now. So as an ordinary person, it may have seemed out of any one individual’s control, but that does not mean we should just shrug and forget this ever happened.
The memory of this conflict must become a scar on the national psyche representative of a harsh lesson learned. With the military industrial complex’s massive influence on our politicians, the many war-hawks in Washington, and the lack of purpose other than occupation of the territory, this conflict was going to drag on until our leaders finally got around to ending it. The beginning of the war could not be prevented, as the political status quo dictated a strong response to the 9/11 terrorist attack in 2001. And looking further back, there was no way for the Al Qaeda to be contained beforehand, as the CIA created that monster back in the 1980s by supplying arms & equipment to them to fight the Russian occupation.
While the original goal to kill Osama bin Laden was accomplished in 2011, the occupation dragged on for another decade. This was due to the perceived necessity of preventing a radical Islamic group like the Taliban from regaining control and spreading terrorism to America once again. That terrible possibility may or may not come to pass, but without a permanent occupying force, the regime change was inevitable. The willpower to sustain American troop’s presence in Afghanistan and the maintenance of the Afghan army simply could not last forever.
While there is no way to reconcile the vast amount of harm done, the United States of America must find a way to move on, though we can’t just wash our hands of it either. Without a military presence, a diplomatic option is the only way forward. Perhaps that was what the US should have done all along given the eventualities that are coming to pass. As the situation unfolds, we should see the complete evacuation of US & coalition personnel, a tightening of the Taliban’s grip in the region, and many atrocities committed by the incoming regime, despite their peaceful rhetoric. The geopolitical fallout will be more difficult to predict as that situation will play out over a longer period of time. But in the immediate future, things are looking grim for Afghanistan and all of the ordinary people who live there. May God/Allah have mercy on them.
